A February PPI print nearly double the consensus arrived six hours before the FOMC decision; the Fed confirmed what the data implied, raised its inflation forecast, retained one 2026 cut, and sent all four major indices to their lowest closes of the year.

Equities added a second straight session of gains as Delta's record booking pace answered the market's demand-resilience question; the Fed's two-day meeting opened with a hold priced at near-certainty.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; the first non-Iranian cargo in weeks transited Monday, pulling WTI below $94 and lifting all four major averages.

The FOMC releases its revised economic projections Wednesday — on the same morning February PPI prints.

A false Energy Department post crashed oil 17% and briefly lifted equities before the White House walked it back, leaving the S&P down 0.21% in a session that went nowhere fast.