Trump's 21-day extension of Operation Epic Fury crushed ceasefire hopes overnight; U.S. equities bounced back with tech leading as WTI surged 12% to $112.

Trump's primetime address vowing to 'hit them extremely hard' over the next two to three weeks reversed ceasefire hopes and sent WTI crude surging past $111 — the biggest one-session spike since the Hormuz blockade began.

Indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations, a surprise ADP beat, and Intel's $14 billion fab buyback lifted nine of eleven sectors — while Nike's forward guidance sent the stock to levels last seen in 2015.

Trump's overnight Truth Social post claiming Iran requested a ceasefire — denied by Tehran within hours — is the morning's single driver: equities rallying, WTI crude sliding back below $100.

Dual de-escalation signals from Tehran and Washington triggered the quarter's sharpest risk-on day, though the S&P still ended Q1 down 5.3% — its worst quarter since 2022.

A WSJ report that Trump will accept a deal without requiring the Strait to reopen is the overnight catalyst; Nike earnings after the bell and Conference Board consumer confidence at 10 AM ET are today's live events.

Oil's first $100+ settlement since the conflict began forced a split-tape session: energy and bonds rallied, tech and small caps fell, and the bond market's recession signal overshadowed the inflation trade.

Fresh Houthi attacks over the weekend erased an early Asia-session pop; Powell's Harvard remarks at 10:30 AM ET are the morning's live catalyst.

Good Friday shuts markets before payrolls land, leaving four trading sessions to position for data the tape can't react to until Monday — when Trump's Iran pause also expires.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard turned away three container ships and declared the strait closed, sending WTI above $95 and pushing the Dow into correction on the S&P 500's fifth consecutive losing week.

A second 10-day extension on threatened Iran strikes gives markets a thin reprieve, but the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and the structural headwinds are unchanged.

Two company-specific shocks — Meta down 8% on back-to-back child-safety verdicts and memory chips cratering on Google's new compression algorithm — drove the session's damage as Iran peace talks collapsed overnight.

Tehran's formal rejection of Washington's 15-point ceasefire proposal reverses yesterday's relief rally, sending futures down 0.7–0.85% and pushing WTI back above $91.

Diplomatic signaling on Iran pulled oil down 2.2% and Arm's first in-house chip sent semiconductors surging 16% — the market had two reasons to buy and one sector to sell.

A U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal sent to Tehran via Pakistan has oil down sharply and equities broadly higher, while ARM's pivot to chip manufacturing sends its stock up 12% on a Meta anchor order.

Monday's relief rally meets Tuesday's reality check: Tehran's categorical denial of any negotiations with Washington has re-lit the geopolitical risk premium, while S&P Global's flash PMI showed manufacturing falling below 50 and input costs spiking at the fastest pace in nearly two years.

A Truth Social post announcing a pause on Iranian infrastructure strikes reversed last week's geopolitical selloff in a single session — oil cratered, gold hit its lowest level of 2026, and small caps led the charge.

A Truth Social post halting planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure reversed the overnight tape and sent WTI crashing from near $100 to the low $90s — but Tehran's denial of any talks keeps the risk premium very much alive.

The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% and kept two 2026 cuts in its median projection — the market promptly priced in none, and this week's thin calendar won't force a resolution.

Iran-Israel escalation disrupted Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic overnight, oil held gains despite a Bessent-floated sanctions release, and a DOJ indictment of Super Micro's co-founder amplified the Nasdaq selloff.

Futures slip for the second straight session as Powell's inflation-first message continues repricing, Super Micro implodes on DOJ criminal charges against its co-founder, and quad witching adds a volatility wildcard to the close.

Large-cap indices trimmed session losses of nearly 1% to close down 0.3–0.4% after Israel's PM announced plans to help the U.S. reopen the Strait of Hormuz; the Russell 2000 reversed from –1% to close green.

Futures extend Wednesday's post-FOMC decline as Micron's blowout quarter falls into a market pricing two compression forces simultaneously: $100 oil and one 2026 cut.

A February PPI print nearly double the consensus arrived six hours before the FOMC decision; the Fed confirmed what the data implied, raised its inflation forecast, retained one 2026 cut, and sent all four major indices to their lowest closes of the year.

Equities added a second straight session of gains as Delta's record booking pace answered the market's demand-resilience question; the Fed's two-day meeting opened with a hold priced at near-certainty.

Crude oil partially unwound Monday's 5% Hormuz relief drop — rising back toward $96 on thin tanker confirmation — while February PPI lands at 8:30 and the Fed's two-day meeting opens this morning.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; the first non-Iranian cargo in weeks transited Monday, pulling WTI below $94 and lifting all four major averages.

The FOMC releases its revised economic projections Wednesday — on the same morning February PPI prints.

All four major averages extended their losing streak to three weeks as Iran maintained its Hormuz posture, oil gained another 3%, and Adobe's CEO exit amplified the tech selloff.

Futures are bouncing cautiously after Thursday's worst session of 2026, but oil above $100 and a sticky core PCE print leave the Fed no room to cut next week.

All four major averages hit calendar-year lows Thursday as WTI surged 9.7% and private credit stress added a second front of selling.

Brent crude briefly crossed $100 after Mojtaba Khamenei broke silence to demand the strait stay closed; IEA's 400M-barrel reserve release hasn't moved prices, the US Navy isn't ready to escort tankers, and equity futures are down 0.4–0.9% with private credit stress adding a second front.

February CPI met estimates but markets know it's the last clean read before the Iran war drives a March inflation spike; the Dow shed 0.61% while energy led and Oracle's earnings-day rally kept the Nasdaq barely positive.

February inflation matched forecasts on every measure, but WTI crude jumped 2.5% overnight on fresh Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving equity futures flat to slightly lower.

A false Energy Department post crashed oil 17% and briefly lifted equities before the White House walked it back, leaving the S&P down 0.21% in a session that went nowhere fast.

Trump's suggestion the Iran conflict is nearing its end pulled crude from overnight highs, steadying futures that had been down more than 2% heading into yesterday's session.

America is no longer the obvious macro loser in a Gulf shock. It is, awkwardly, one of the substitutes.

4 million barrels per day of surplus, and then a war

13.6 million barrels per day and still importing — here's the plumbing