S&P 500 futures are off 0.5% heading into the final session of the week, extending Thursday's post-FOMC decline as the Fed's message finishes pricing in: core PCE revised up to 2.7% for 2026, the dot plot's year-end median left unchanged at 3.4%, and Powell explicit that cuts don't arrive before inflation does.^[1][2] The 11–1 vote to hold at 3.50%–3.75% — Governor Miran dissented in favor of a cut — tells the full story: the committee sees no urgency. Super Micro Computer is the morning's single-stock event, down roughly 25% on criminal charges against its co-founder for allegedly smuggling Nvidia-powered AI servers to China. Gold is back above $4,650, recovering Thursday's ceasefire-premium selloff and pressing toward new highs.^[7]

What's driving it

The primary driver is Wednesday's FOMC outcome, which markets are still working through two days later. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its core PCE forecast to 2.7% for 2026, and left the median year-end rate dot at 3.4% — effectively telling markets that two cuts penciled in for the year are not a given.^[2] Powell's press conference removed any remaining ambiguity: easing is conditional on sustained disinflation, and Middle East energy prices are the specific variable the committee named as a complication for that path.

WTI is consolidating near $95.50, down sharply from its mid-week surge toward $99 after the White House signaled potential strategic reserve releases and reports circulated of progress re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. The underlying geopolitical premium hasn't cleared — Iran's threat posture remains live — but oil's partial retreat is at least not actively making the Fed's job harder this morning. The dollar is back above 99.50, reinforced by the hawkish hold, and the ten-year yield is pressing toward 4.30% as near-term cut expectations continue unwinding.

On the calendar

Today is quarterly options expiration — quad witching — the simultaneous expiration of index futures, index options, stock options, and single-stock futures. Volume in the final hour typically runs 3–4x the daily average, and market maker delta-hedging flows can amplify intraday moves in either direction regardless of macro direction.

There are no major U.S. economic data releases scheduled today. The week's macro work was done Wednesday with the FOMC statement and dot plot. Any Fed speakers this morning would be the incremental news item, though the committee typically observes a quiet period in the immediate post-meeting window.

Movers

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is down roughly 25% pre-market after federal prosecutors unsealed criminal charges against co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw and two associates for allegedly orchestrating a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia-powered AI servers to China in violation of U.S. export control laws.^[3] Alleged tactics included removing serial numbers from hardware and routing shipments through Southeast Asian intermediaries to obscure the ultimate destination. SMCI was already under SEC scrutiny; criminal exposure at the co-founder level is a different order of magnitude entirely.

FedEx (FDX) is up roughly 2% after reporting fiscal Q3 results Thursday after the bell, beating on revenue and raising full-year EPS guidance.^[4] The company confirmed that the FedEx Freight spin-off remains on track as a separate public company on June 1 — the structural headline investors were watching alongside the quarterly beat.

Earnings on deck

Accenture (ACN) reported Thursday before the bell: EPS of $2.93 beat the $2.85 consensus; revenue of $18.04 billion landed at the top of its guided range with record new bookings of $22.1 billion and raised full-year guidance.^[5] Pre-market reaction is muted — the macro headwind is absorbing a clean quarter. XPeng (XPEV) is down roughly 5% after Q4 FY2025 results disappointed; the earnings call was underway at 8:00 AM ET.^[6]

The setup

Two things the session has to work through: the continued repricing of a Fed that is explicitly not easing, and the SMCI co-founder arrest as a read on where U.S. export control enforcement is heading in AI hardware. Criminal charges against a co-founder of a major U.S. AI infrastructure company for China smuggling will move beyond the stock itself — semiconductor supply chain names will be watching for knock-on scrutiny. Quad witching adds mechanical volatility to the afternoon regardless of macro direction. The live variable into the weekend: whether oil can hold its consolidation near $95, or whether geopolitical noise pushes it back toward $100 before markets close.