S&P 500 futures are down 0.8% Thursday morning after Trump's primetime address on Wednesday night reversed Tuesday's ceasefire rally, promising to "hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks" — an escalation the oil market immediately priced with WTI surging 10.85% to $110.98.^[1] Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.0%. Gold is selling off 1.9%, a function of dollar strength rather than risk-on calm. The VIX is at 25.93. Tomorrow brings the BLS jobs report; today's session is about processing what the speech means for the war's duration.

What's driving it

Trump's April 1 address was the whipsaw markets needed to reverse Tuesday's positioning. He described mission objectives as "nearing completion" in one breath, then promised strikes on Iranian electrical infrastructure if no deal emerges.^[3] The mixed signal — nearly over, but hitting hard for two to three more weeks — killed the ceasefire trade that had driven a +0.72% S&P close on Tuesday.^[4]

The oil move is the harder number. WTI at $110.98 reflects the supply math: the last tankers loaded before the Hormuz blockade are now arriving at destination ports, meaning the demand side is about to feel the full weight of the disruption.^[5] IEA head Fatih Birol warned Tuesday that "April will be much worse than March." Brent had its largest monthly gain in recorded history in March. The US has authorized the largest-ever strategic reserve release — 400 million barrels — and temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil, neither of which has stopped the spot market from moving.

ISM Manufacturing's March prices sub-index printed 78.3% on Tuesday — up 7.8 points, the highest since June 2022. ADP private payrolls for March came in at +62,000, above the +40,000 consensus but still a low absolute print.^[11] Input costs accelerating at their fastest pace in nearly four years while hiring runs at five-figure levels — that is the data pair behind the week's stagflation repricing, ahead of tomorrow's BLS print.

On the calendar

Initial jobless claims (8:30 AM, already released): 202,000, significantly below the 212,000 consensus — one of the lowest weekly reads in two years.^[11] Constructive, but a single week of claims data doesn't tell you much about what a $111 oil price does to hiring plans over the next 60 days.

Factory orders (10:00 AM ET): The secondary data point today. Watch for any Hormuz-driven supply chain signal in order backlogs.

BLS Jobs Report (tomorrow, 8:30 AM ET): Non-farm payrolls and unemployment. The dominant data event of the week. Markets won't trade on it until Monday — Good Friday closes equities.

Movers

Tesla is down roughly 4% pre-market after Q1 2026 deliveries came in at 358,023 units — below the roughly 365,600 consensus — while production ran 50,000 units above deliveries, building inventory rather than clearing it.^[6][7] Energy storage at 8.8 GWh missed the 14.4 GWh estimate by 38%. The delivery miss is modest in percentage terms; the inventory build and energy storage collapse are the numbers to watch ahead of April 22 financials.

Blue Owl Capital is down 8–9% after its OTIC tech credit fund reported 40.7% redemption requests — up from 15.4% last quarter — and its OCIC fund reported 21.9%, up from 5.2%.^[8][9] Both funds are capping redemptions. The private credit redemption cycle is accelerating into an energy shock and rising recession probability. Ares, Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, and TPG are all moving lower in sympathy.

Globalstar is up ~12% pre-market on an FT report that Amazon is in acquisition talks.^[10] Negotiations are reportedly complicated by Apple's 20% stake. No confirmations from either company.

Earnings on deck

Penguin Solutions (PENG) — reported this morning; Q2 results beat estimates with raised FY2026 guidance. Stock is up 9–10% pre-market.^[12] Not a market-moving name, but the raised guide is a positive data point in the AI infrastructure supply chain.

The setup

The session runs on one question: does the market treat Trump's speech as a ceiling on the conflict or a floor? If the "nearing completion" language dominates, energy names find a bid and the morning's equity selloff is a fade. If the "hit extremely hard for two to three weeks" language dominates, $111 oil has more room. Exxon and Chevron are up 3–4% pre-market, which is the market's best guess at the answer. The private credit redemption data out of Blue Owl is the session's quieter signal: when 40% of investors in a locked vehicle want out, the macro stress is showing up in places that don't trade in real time.