S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% this morning — a tentative bounce after Thursday delivered the index's worst session of 2026, a 1.5% decline to 6,673 that pushed all three major averages to their lowest closes of the year.^[1] The same story is in charge: Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, installed March 9, has pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy," and Brent crude closed Thursday at $100.46 — its first settle above $100 since August 2022.^[2] January PCE landed at 8:30 this morning with core at 3.1% year-over-year, in line with estimates but a number that gains new weight with the Fed meeting five days away.^[5] The bounce is real but nothing in the macro picture has changed overnight.

What's driving it

Thursday was a 9.72% single-session move in WTI — the kind of number that rearranges models.^[2] The IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest in the agency's history, has not moved prices. The arithmetic is unchanged: the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil, and no reserve draw replaces what a closed strait removes daily.^[11] Iran's IRGC has warned that vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, or their allies are "legitimate targets," and at least 16 ships have been struck in and around the Gulf in the past two weeks.

The Trump administration's decision overnight to temporarily lift sanctions on sanctioned Russian crude already loaded on vessels as of March 12 — a waiver running through April 11 — has not moved Brent.^[4] Goldman Sachs now models Brent averaging $98 in March-April, has raised its 2026 U.S. inflation forecast 0.8 percentage points to 2.9%, and trimmed GDP growth 0.3 points to 2.2%. It raised U.S. recession odds by 5 points to 25%.

Core PCE at 3.1% year-over-year this morning is the inflation-in-a-war-economy print the Fed did not want heading into March 17–18.^[5] Headline PCE came in at 2.8% annually and 0.3% month-over-month. Both figures are in line with the LSEG consensus. The core monthly print of 0.4% reflects energy pass-through that will only intensify if Brent holds its current level. Odds of any 2026 cut before September sit below 50% on CME FedWatch; the probability of two or more cuts this year has fallen from 85% a month ago to roughly 35%.

On the calendar

PCE is already in the books. The afternoon brings the Q4 GDP second estimate, JOLTS job openings for January, and University of Michigan preliminary March Consumer Sentiment at 10 AM — forecast at 56.2, reflecting a household mood shaped by gas prices that have risen roughly 60 cents per gallon since the conflict began.^[12] None of these data points are likely to move equities unless one misses by a wide margin. The real calendar event is March 17–18.

Movers

Adobe (ADBE) is down 8% pre-market after the company announced Thursday evening that CEO Shantanu Narayen, in the role for 18 years, will transition out once a successor is named — with no timeline and no named candidate.^[8][6] The earnings themselves were a clean beat: Q1 EPS of $6.06 versus a $5.87 estimate, revenue of $6.4 billion versus $6.28 billion, with Q2 guidance set above consensus.^[7] Any other quarter the stock rallies. Instead, it's losing roughly $14 billion in market cap in pre-market on a leadership vacuum at a company already under pressure to prove AI monetization before competition closes the window.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is down 8% to around $575, from a $625 close.^[10] Q4 revenue of $3.90 billion beat estimates by 2.5%, but EPS of $8.01 barely missed the $8.03 consensus, and operating income fell 8% year-over-year as SG&A climbed to 25.7% of sales from 23.4% a year ago.^[9] FY2026 EPS guidance of $28.05–$28.55 landed below the midpoint of buy-side expectations. Discretionary beauty is a gauge of consumer health, and Ulta's cost structure is deteriorating at the moment consumers are getting squeezed by gas prices.

Nvidia (NVDA) is up 1.6% as semiconductor names broadly outperform, carried by strong results from TSMC and Oracle that sustained the chip sector's relative strength through Thursday's broader selloff.

Earnings on deck

No major names report before today's open. After the close, the calendar is light. The Adobe and Ulta reports were the week's primary earnings events, and both have now been absorbed.

The setup

Core PCE at 3.1% is the session's first answer: the Fed has no room to move in March, and very little political cover to cut in May. The live question running through today's session is whether Brent can be held below $100 or whether it reclaims that level and forces another round of Fed-path repricing. A second variable: does the modest futures bounce hold into the cash open, or does another wave of selling emerge as institutional desks reassess Q1 earnings risk with oil 30% higher than it was three weeks ago. The next hard catalyst is March 17 — the Fed meeting begins, and PPI, delayed by the government shutdown, is also rescheduled for that morning.