Oil invoicing is a rounding error on the dollar system. The war isn't changing that.

A February PPI print nearly double the consensus arrived six hours before the FOMC decision; the Fed confirmed what the data implied, raised its inflation forecast, retained one 2026 cut, and sent all four major indices to their lowest closes of the year.

Equities added a second straight session of gains as Delta's record booking pace answered the market's demand-resilience question; the Fed's two-day meeting opened with a hold priced at near-certainty.

Crude oil partially unwound Monday's 5% Hormuz relief drop — rising back toward $96 on thin tanker confirmation — while February PPI lands at 8:30 and the Fed's two-day meeting opens this morning.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; the first non-Iranian cargo in weeks transited Monday, pulling WTI below $94 and lifting all four major averages.

The FOMC releases its revised economic projections Wednesday — on the same morning February PPI prints.

All four major averages extended their losing streak to three weeks as Iran maintained its Hormuz posture, oil gained another 3%, and Adobe's CEO exit amplified the tech selloff.

Futures are bouncing cautiously after Thursday's worst session of 2026, but oil above $100 and a sticky core PCE print leave the Fed no room to cut next week.

All four major averages hit calendar-year lows Thursday as WTI surged 9.7% and private credit stress added a second front of selling.

Brent crude briefly crossed $100 after Mojtaba Khamenei broke silence to demand the strait stay closed; IEA's 400M-barrel reserve release hasn't moved prices, the US Navy isn't ready to escort tankers, and equity futures are down 0.4–0.9% with private credit stress adding a second front.

February CPI met estimates but markets know it's the last clean read before the Iran war drives a March inflation spike; the Dow shed 0.61% while energy led and Oracle's earnings-day rally kept the Nasdaq barely positive.

February inflation matched forecasts on every measure, but WTI crude jumped 2.5% overnight on fresh Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving equity futures flat to slightly lower.

A false Energy Department post crashed oil 17% and briefly lifted equities before the White House walked it back, leaving the S&P down 0.21% in a session that went nowhere fast.

Trump's suggestion the Iran conflict is nearing its end pulled crude from overnight highs, steadying futures that had been down more than 2% heading into yesterday's session.

Insurance isn't the bottleneck. The bottleneck is that there's no replacement for a ship, or its crew, at any price.

America is no longer the obvious macro loser in a Gulf shock. It is, awkwardly, one of the substitutes.

4 million barrels per day of surplus, and then a war

India, Japan, and China each built their energy plumbing around a 30-mile chokepoint. Now the chokepoint is closed.

When 'psychological damage' becomes capital flight

'Days of storage' becomes a market variable

The war isn't about barrels — it's about shipping, insurance, front companies, and the rial

The Kospi was up 47% on semiconductors and vibes. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed.

JKM at $25, TTF at $15, and the cargoes are going where the money is. Europe will have to figure something out.

Beijing on Tuesday, Washington on Monday, and what Germany gets for showing up

A 1953 agreement, a 2026 war, and the question of what 'joint use' actually means

13.6 million barrels per day and still importing — here's the plumbing