S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures are nearly flat — a relative recovery after Monday's session saw contracts fall more than 2% and 2.3%, respectively, as Iran war fears sent WTI crude to nearly $120 a barrel.^[2] Overnight, President Trump told CBS News that ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, that he's "thinking about taking it over," and that the ten-day-old conflict is approaching its end — comments enough to pull crude back toward $103 and give equity futures a floor.^[1] The tension between those Trump signals and Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which dismissed his statements as "nonsense" and threatened continued exchanges, is the live variable.

What's driving it

The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has been the dominant market force since it escalated ten days ago.^[3] WTI crude spiked 24.6% in a single session last weekend to $113 a barrel, and touched nearly $120 overnight before Trump's de-escalation remarks reversed the move. At $103, oil is still up roughly 60% from where it traded before the conflict began — enough to shift the Fed's calculus and raise recession risk if sustained.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which had briefly touched 4.22% on Monday as the inflation implications of $120 crude registered, has since pulled back to 4.15%.^[4] Traders have repriced Fed expectations sharply: the market now prices one 25 bps cut this year, most likely September, versus two cuts expected last week. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout ahead of the March 17–18 FOMC.

The dollar index (DXY) sits at 98.60, down 0.6% on the session, reflecting some safe-haven rotation into gold and the yen rather than the typical flight to the dollar — an unusual signal given the geopolitical backdrop.

On the calendar

No major U.S. economic data releases today. The week's critical print is the February Consumer Price Index, due Wednesday March 11 at 8:30 AM Eastern.^[7] January CPI came in at +2.4% year-over-year. A hotter reading tomorrow — plausible given where energy was tracking through much of February — would compound the Fed's already complicated picture. The market will spend today positioning around it.

Movers

Airlines are getting compressed from both sides. Delta, American, and Alaska are each down roughly 3% in premarket, with United and Southwest off more than 2%. The fuel cost math at $100+ crude is straightforward, and forward bookings carry their own uncertainty while the Strait of Hormuz situation remains unresolved.^[5]

Defense is the inverse trade. RTX, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman are each up around 1% premarket, adding to gains of 2–4% since the conflict began. The sector has been a clean hedge and is performing like one.

Earnings on deck

Oracle (ORCL) reports Q3 FY2026 after the close today. Consensus sits at $1.70 EPS and $16.92 billion in revenue, implying roughly 20% top-line growth year-over-year.^[8] Oracle guided to 37–41% cloud revenue growth in constant currency for the quarter, driven by OCI capacity tied to the Stargate buildout with OpenAI. The stock is down 50% from its September peak and 22% year-to-date — Barclays cut its target from $310 to $230 ahead of the print, Deutsche Bank trimmed from $375 to $300.^[9] Investors are watching cloud ARR cadence and any update on the stalled broader Stargate expansion.

The setup

The market needs Trump's Iran signals to hold. If the IRGC's dismissal of his comments proves to be the operative reality tonight and crude spikes again, this morning's modest stabilization unwinds quickly. If the conflict moves toward a genuine ceasefire, the reflationary shock dissipates and tomorrow's CPI is less fraught. Oracle's print after the close will test whether the AI infrastructure thesis is intact at these valuations — or whether a year of multiple compression has more room to run.