Oil invoicing is a rounding error on the dollar system. The war isn't changing that.

Futures are bouncing cautiously after Thursday's worst session of 2026, but oil above $100 and a sticky core PCE print leave the Fed no room to cut next week.

Brent crude briefly crossed $100 after Mojtaba Khamenei broke silence to demand the strait stay closed; IEA's 400M-barrel reserve release hasn't moved prices, the US Navy isn't ready to escort tankers, and equity futures are down 0.4–0.9% with private credit stress adding a second front.

February CPI met estimates but markets know it's the last clean read before the Iran war drives a March inflation spike; the Dow shed 0.61% while energy led and Oracle's earnings-day rally kept the Nasdaq barely positive.

February inflation matched forecasts on every measure, but WTI crude jumped 2.5% overnight on fresh Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving equity futures flat to slightly lower.

A false Energy Department post crashed oil 17% and briefly lifted equities before the White House walked it back, leaving the S&P down 0.21% in a session that went nowhere fast.

Trump's suggestion the Iran conflict is nearing its end pulled crude from overnight highs, steadying futures that had been down more than 2% heading into yesterday's session.

Insurance isn't the bottleneck. The bottleneck is that there's no replacement for a ship, or its crew, at any price.

America is no longer the obvious macro loser in a Gulf shock. It is, awkwardly, one of the substitutes.

4 million barrels per day of surplus, and then a war

'Days of storage' becomes a market variable

The war isn't about barrels — it's about shipping, insurance, front companies, and the rial

Annual licenses, tariff carve-outs, and the problem of making chips in China

Beijing on Tuesday, Washington on Monday, and what Germany gets for showing up

A 1953 agreement, a 2026 war, and the question of what 'joint use' actually means

13.6 million barrels per day and still importing — here's the plumbing