The Dow fell 793 points (–1.73%) to 45,166.64, entering correction territory, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard formally declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to vessels trading with the United States, Israel, and allied nations — physically turning away three container ships to enforce it. ^[1] The S&P 500 dropped 1.67% to 6,368.85, posting its fifth consecutive weekly loss and its worst month since December 2022; the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15% to 20,948.36; and the Russell 2000 shed 1.3% to 2,461.00. WTI crude briefly touched $99 before settling near $95, an 8.4% single-session gain — the largest one-day oil move of the conflict — while gold added 1.8% and the VIX closed at 29.55, its highest close since the war began. ^[3]

What moved it

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 27% of global seaborne oil and petroleum trade. The IRGC's formal closure announcement upgraded weeks of de facto disruption into explicit policy, removing any residual ambiguity about supply continuity. ^[2] Trump extended his deadline for the strait to reopen by 10 days to April 6, posting on Truth Social midday. The extension provided a brief intraday bounce; it didn't hold. Markets read the delay as bought time rather than diplomatic progress, and crude resumed its climb into the close.

The inflation math is repricing faster than the Fed can signal. The energy shock has added an estimated 0.9 percentage points to U.S. headline CPI over three weeks. Futures markets crossed 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end for the first time since 2023 — a dramatic reversal from the two cuts priced at January's open. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said Friday that above-2% inflation makes her "more apprehensive about policy." ^[8] The 10-year yield rose 2.4 basis points to 4.44%, approaching its highest level since mid-2025.

Sector scoreboard

Energy was the session's only sector with meaningful gains, adding roughly 4% as oil producers benefited directly from the supply-shock trade. ExxonMobil rose 3.4%, extending its YTD gain to approximately 30% on production of five million oil-equivalent barrels per day. ^[9]

Technology was the hardest-hit sector, falling roughly 2.5–3%, compounding Thursday's TurboQuant-driven damage. Nvidia's forward P/E has dipped below the S&P 500 average for the first time in years — a compression that reflects both rising discount rates and a forward earnings debate now complicated by Google's memory efficiency release. ^[10] Communication services and consumer discretionary each fell over 2%, weighed by mega-cap names across the board.

Rate-sensitive sectors took additional pressure from the hike-probability repricing: real estate (XLRE) and financials (XLF) both declined as the spread and valuation calculus shifted under them. Breadth was broadly negative — fewer than 140 S&P 500 names advanced against 364 decliners, consistent with institutional de-risking rather than sector rotation. ^[2]

Movers

Burford Capital (BUR): –40%. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit overturned a $16.1 billion judgment against Argentina in the YPF nationalization case in a 2–1 ruling, finding the breach-of-contract claims invalid under Argentine civil and public law. Burford had funded the litigation and held a claim to a substantial share of any recovery. Shares triggered multiple circuit-breaker halts before closing down roughly 40%. ^{[4] [5]} The ruling widens the risk premium for litigation finance as an asset class — if sovereign-state judgments can be reversed on conflicts-of-law grounds after 13 years of proceedings, the underwriting assumptions for the category need revisiting. ^[6]

Argan, Inc. (AGX): +35%. The power plant builder reported Q4 FY2026 EPS of $3.47 vs. a $2.13 consensus estimate (+63% beat), driven by early completion of the Trumbull Energy Center for the PJM grid. Contract backlog surged to $2.9 billion from $1.4 billion a year ago; FY2027 revenue guidance of $415–$440 million exceeded the $386 million consensus. JPMorgan upgraded to overweight with a $550 target; the stock touched $564.77 intraday. ^[7]

What to watch

April 6 deadline. Trump's extension gives Iran — and markets — 10 days. Any credible back-channel signal before that date will move crude and equities more than any scheduled data this week. Absence of visible progress likely pushes WTI through $100 before the deadline arrives.

Fed communication. The shift from two expected cuts to a 50%+ implied hike probability is the sharpest monetary repricing of the year. Any Fed speech next week that explicitly addresses the inflation-vs.-growth tradeoff — or declines to — will move rate expectations materially. The next FOMC meeting is weeks away; in the interim, Fedspeak is the policy signal.

Nvidia forward multiple. With the forward P/E now below the S&P 500 average, the premium has compressed fully. Next week's commentary from hyperscalers and chip suppliers — particularly on data center capex plans — will determine whether Thursday and Friday's valuation reset was rational repricing or an overshoot.

Core PCE. The next print arrives in the coming days. With energy already adding ~0.9 points to headline CPI, consensus expects core PCE to hold above 3%. An upside surprise cements hike expectations; a downside read is the only near-term macro release capable of relieving pressure on equities.

Burford contagion. Litigation finance vehicles with sovereign exposure are repricing. Watch for secondary-market spread widening in sovereign litigation risk instruments and any forced selling in funds with concentrated Burford positions.